Blair to Brussels: Swallow your pride to stop Brexit

The EU needs to get tougher on migration, former UK PM tells POLITICO podcast.

Tony Blair thinks there’s a 50 percent chance of stopping Brexit — but only if the EU plays its part.

Without new EU immigration controls, and British MPs deciding to send a final Brexit deal to a referendum, a hard Brexit is looming that will be painful for both the U.K. and the bloc, Blair told POLITICO’s EU Confidential podcast.

Blair predicted that outcome will leave the EU with an angrier, bigger version of Singapore on its doorstep — “a competitor to Europe, not an ally” — that would undercut EU business and social models.

“That’s going to be very ugly,” Blair said.

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The U.K., for its part, would go through a “a long and difficult period of economic restructuring.”

With the British government planning to exit its customs union with the EU, Blair said he believes the only way the U.K. will attract investment is “by pointing the finger at Europe and saying ‘we’re not like them’” — meaning a low-tax, low-regulation U.K.

But efforts to impose stronger controls at Europe’s external borders and smarter management of migration within the EU — for example, via reforms to the Posted Workers Directive sealed Thursday — would address the underlying immigration concerns that drove the Brexit vote, Blair said.

The upside for Europe, which has been notoriously slow to tackle immigration reform: The shift would help deflate populist politicians on the Continent, Blair told an audience at the European Policy Centre.

Don’t look back in anger

In the podcast interview, Blair was reluctant to say who was responsible for the Euroskepticism and immigration anxiety that drove Britons to vote for Brexit. He did, however, admit he could have done more to soften the impact of EU immigration on them within the EU’s existing rules.

“I think that frankly what I didn’t really understand fully is how different countries in Europe deal with the existing freedom [of movement] rules in Europe.” Belgium scores particularly high point in Blair’s eyes: “In Belgium you’re given two months to find a job and if you don’t, you’re out,” he said.

Blair has little love for Jeremy Corbyn, his left-wing successor as Labour party leader. Corbyn’s policy of developing a bespoke customs union with the EU means the party “pulled up its anchor … without actually getting to the truly safe harbor” of challenging the government’s wider Brexit strategy. He said Labour policy could still evolve to outright opposition to Brexit.

It wasn’t all tough love for the EU from Blair. He said his European political heroes are the EU’s founding fathers, including Robert Schuman. “They had the vision and the determination not just to think about how Europe could be different but translated that into a practical endeavor and I think that’s amazing,” he said.

But he admitted to some difficult moments with the EU. If you’re ever frustrated at Brexit debates or a long work meeting, be thankful you’re not at an all-night summit with Jacques Chirac in the chair.

“My worst moment [at a summit] was, I think, in the year 2000 when we were going all the way through the night and literally everybody was completely fed up with what was happening,” Blair recalled. “And I remember at some point Jacques Chirac, who was actually chairing the proceedings, put his feet on the table, got out a book on Japanese art and began reading!”

Click here to listen immediately to POLITICO’s EU Confidential podcast with Tony Blair or download the episode via Apple Podcasts.