The frequency of heat waves and their duration in India may begin to increase from as early as 2020, says a study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).

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The study said “El Nino Modoki”, a weather system different from El Nino, could be responsible for the increase in heat waves in India. Depletion of soil moisture and transfer of heat from the earth to the atmosphere would also trigger them.

These events are likely to happen between 2020 and 2064, affecting parts of southern India and coastal regions that have till now largely escaped heat waves.